Examining the Fisher models and the current odds.

In this blog post we'll examine the seats and votes models but this time taking a deeper look and using the models to examine what prices from the bookies may be right or not:

First up Stephen Fisher with his electionsetc model:

Elections Etc ‏@ElectionsEtc  Mar 13

With polls tied, we give the Tories a 74% chance of winning the most votes at #GE2015: http://wp.me/p4Be9H-f6  pic.twitter.com/smJnfrFwBt.

Clearly at the inception of this model "crossover" was predicated alot earlier than the seeming point it is at right now with the parties bang level.

Nevertheless we are where we are, and the 74% chance suggests that neither 3.5 Labour most votes nor 1.3 Conservatives is value (Bookies best prices). Indeed it points to bookies using this model for their prices, whether this is the case or just a coincidence at the moment is however not clear.

Next we see that the model has Labour seats at 45%, with Conservative seats at 55%.

The 1.48/1.49 price for Conservatives on Betfair most seats is wrong according to this model and it should be 1.81/1.82.

This is even accepting that 3-10 is the correct price on the Conservatives for most votes is correct (With bookie overround factored in) as indicated by the model.

The model also shows that Labour can get a PM in (This is most likely to be Ed but not 100% certain) with just over 50% probability (The first bit of that SNP king makers/wreckers section of the pie inevitably leads to PM Ed in my view) so the 2.6 on Ed to be PM after GE is high, even accepting that Conseratives are 1.3 for most votes !

My position holds up well to Mr Fisher's model for the overall, however I've asked them about the method of translation from votes to seats, UNS is a fair bit too generous to Labour in my view.