Will Charlie win ?

So Mr Kennedy is 5% behind "Thinking about your own seat" in the Ashcroft polling - would he be ahead if he was named though.

I don't think so, but it will be very tight on the night.

Mind you he'll do well to only lose by 3 odd %, and it'll look like a remarkably good result on the night.

Can CARMICHAEL possibly lose his seat.

I'm going to go with "No" but certainly given his role at the heart of Government I really wouldn't advise taking the 1-8 on him. Since I think the bet is a likely loser and is unlikely to be tradeable for a profit I'll leave this seat as No bet.

If you're feeling brave though, the 5-1 on him might be worth a punt.