Saturday 9 May 2015

Well got the big call wrong, but hey ho - the list as long as your arm of Conservative and SNP constituency bets made sure it was a very decent night *cough*

Anyway this site isn't a record of my p&l, but for predictions:

First one for 2020

SNP Gain DCT.

Friday 1 May 2015

Calling it for Ed - Back Con Minority

Right - Time to put my neck on the block.

I'm calling it for Ed:

Here is why:

I fully expect the Tories to win the national vote share. The national polls point to Ed (In aggregate) being ahead on seats or it being too close to call. The likely distribution from the models (UKElect, FIsher, Hanretty) points to a Tory lead on votes and seats. BUT Here is the thing... Con + LD + DUP must equal 323. In order for Ed to NOT become PM he musty abstain the Conservative Queen speech. SNP, PC, SDLP, Green voting it down is even more sure than the Labour party. No doubt if it really is Labour 260, Tories 285 he will give it serious consideration. But then he will put forward a Labour Queen speech and DARE the SNP to vote it down. There will be some Labour rebels who will be expelled, Danczuk, Mann, perhaps one or two others.

The SNP will vote it through.. And thus as Rod Crosby has pointed towards in his constitutional musings Ed is PM. I expect him to remain in post till Holyrood 2016. Past that the SNP may well pull the plug.

However there is enough uncertainty in the whole situation to make CONSERVATIVE MINORITY the best value bet right now at 5.9 on Betfair.

How can I predict Ed, yet recommend Con minority as a bet ?

BET WHEN THE PRICE IS WRONG NOT WITH WHAT YOU THINK WILL HAPPEN.

So in short:

Prediction: Ed Miliband PM.

Bet recommendation: Conservative Minority.

Update: Lab minority more likely with Burnham's comments on R5L this morning.