(Guided) finger in the air stuff here
Unexpected Holds & Gains for each party:
Con HOLD: Brighton Kemptown
Con Gain: Bath
Labour hold: Dumfries & Galloway
Lab Gain: Ilford North
Lib Dem Hold: Berwickshire Roxburgh Selkirk
Lib Dem Gain: Watford
SNP Hold:All 1-100 shots...
SNP Gain: DCT
UKIP Hold: Rochester
UKIP Gain: Great Grimsby.
Not betting recommendations by the way !
Sunday 26 April 2015
Tuesday 21 April 2015
Can the Gov't survive - a seat by seat analysis:
Seeing as the rest of parliament is basically to the left of Labour with the exception of the DUP - Well Con + DUP + LD + UKIP needs to = 323 for Dave to hang onto power.
Even at 323 it is highly dubious that the LDs don't switch sides, but we can regard it as an absolute minima.
Con/LD; SNP/Lab not important for this analysis:
LD losses to Labour according to Election forecast.
Bradford East
Brent Central
Manchester, Withington
Norwich South
Redcar
Burnley
Cardiff Central
Hornsey and Wood Green
Leeds North West
Bristol West
(10 losses to Lab)
Orkney is the 1 LD Hold against SNP (9 losses) - BRS switches LD to CON on the model.
Con losses to Lab.
6 London (Hendon, Brentford Isleworth, Enfield North, Ealing Central Acton, Croydon Central)
8 NW (Lancaster, Fleetwood, Chester, Bury North, Wirral West, Morecambe, Warrington South)
3 East (Waveney, Bedford, Ipswich)
2 Yorkshire Humber (Dewsbury, Keighley)
3 West Mids (Wolves SW, North Warks, Nuneaton)
2 SW (Plymouth, Stroud)
2 SE (Hastings, Hove)
6 East Mids (Erewash, Amber Valley, Sherwood, Lincoln, Amber Valley, Broxtowe)
The current potential centre-right coalition/confidence & supply arrangement is as follows Lib Dem total is 56, Conservatives 302, UKIP 2, DUP 8.
So 368 'forces of the centre/centre-right'
Subbing the Lab losses yields 358
The 9 SNP losses gives 349.
And then the 32 Conservatives gives 313..
To begin to have a prayer of staying as PM, 10 Holds are needed from this lot, and also crucially no losses 'off the list'.
Scotland looks to be a fair reflection, as even though some argue East Dunbartonshire might stay Lib Dem (Or even Thurso), DCT and BRS could both well go to the SNP... particularly BRS. Dumfries & Galloway could even be a CON gain. Though this is unlikely. Nine losses to the SNP looks about right to me.
With the Lab gains from LD
Brent Central
Manchester, Withington
Norwich South
Redcar
Burnley
Cardiff Central
Bristol West
Are all surely dead. If Bristol West doesn't go red, it is going Green and that is of no use to Dave whatsoever.
Hornsey and Wood Green looks fairly dead too, and there are some arguments that Ward PV may hold Bradford East.
Leeds North West is odds against, but then again Birmingham Yardley and Sheffield Hallam could be brought into play.
Eight is a working minimum here.
Which gives 351 seats.
So 28 is the absolute and complete minimum no of seats Dave needs to stop shipping...
The Labour seat total is almost immaterial, it is all about the above group hitting 323
Even then it may not be enough.
Seeing as the rest of parliament is basically to the left of Labour with the exception of the DUP - Well Con + DUP + LD + UKIP needs to = 323 for Dave to hang onto power.
Even at 323 it is highly dubious that the LDs don't switch sides, but we can regard it as an absolute minima.
Con/LD; SNP/Lab not important for this analysis:
LD losses to Labour according to Election forecast.
Bradford East
Brent Central
Manchester, Withington
Norwich South
Redcar
Burnley
Cardiff Central
Hornsey and Wood Green
Leeds North West
Bristol West
(10 losses to Lab)
Orkney is the 1 LD Hold against SNP (9 losses) - BRS switches LD to CON on the model.
Con losses to Lab.
6 London (Hendon, Brentford Isleworth, Enfield North, Ealing Central Acton, Croydon Central)
8 NW (Lancaster, Fleetwood, Chester, Bury North, Wirral West, Morecambe, Warrington South)
3 East (Waveney, Bedford, Ipswich)
2 Yorkshire Humber (Dewsbury, Keighley)
3 West Mids (Wolves SW, North Warks, Nuneaton)
2 SW (Plymouth, Stroud)
2 SE (Hastings, Hove)
6 East Mids (Erewash, Amber Valley, Sherwood, Lincoln, Amber Valley, Broxtowe)
The current potential centre-right coalition/confidence & supply arrangement is as follows Lib Dem total is 56, Conservatives 302, UKIP 2, DUP 8.
So 368 'forces of the centre/centre-right'
Subbing the Lab losses yields 358
The 9 SNP losses gives 349.
And then the 32 Conservatives gives 313..
To begin to have a prayer of staying as PM, 10 Holds are needed from this lot, and also crucially no losses 'off the list'.
Scotland looks to be a fair reflection, as even though some argue East Dunbartonshire might stay Lib Dem (Or even Thurso), DCT and BRS could both well go to the SNP... particularly BRS. Dumfries & Galloway could even be a CON gain. Though this is unlikely. Nine losses to the SNP looks about right to me.
With the Lab gains from LD
Brent Central
Manchester, Withington
Norwich South
Redcar
Burnley
Cardiff Central
Bristol West
Are all surely dead. If Bristol West doesn't go red, it is going Green and that is of no use to Dave whatsoever.
Hornsey and Wood Green looks fairly dead too, and there are some arguments that Ward PV may hold Bradford East.
Leeds North West is odds against, but then again Birmingham Yardley and Sheffield Hallam could be brought into play.
Eight is a working minimum here.
Which gives 351 seats.
So 28 is the absolute and complete minimum no of seats Dave needs to stop shipping...
The Labour seat total is almost immaterial, it is all about the above group hitting 323
Even then it may not be enough.
Thursday 9 April 2015
The value of Edward Samuel Miliband
The model from Electionsetc currently gives Conservatives a 20% probability of forming the next Gov't.
On the Betfair Markets this is currently 9/9.2 (10.9% probability)
I'm reasonably neutral on this, having enough to cover various NOM bets within Con Green.
Con Largest Party is rated at 75%
On the Betfair markets Con Most seats is 1.63/1.65 which resembles a 60% chance.
So both of these are actually backable. Except listening to experienced gamblers both aren't great value at the moment.
Now we come to Ed PM - rated at 42% - William Hills has a bet at the moment Ed Miliband to be PM on August 1st.
So the 6-4 on this is value if you believe the Correct Con Seats should be 1.33 and Con Maj should be 5.0.
Also given recent polling 47 seats for the SNP looks like a roughly even money bet - which reinforces Fisher's reasoning...
The expected performance of the SNP making it tricky for Labour to actually get most seats. But they don't need to for Ed to become PM... If Con + Lib Dem + DUP < 323 he is PM pretty much nailed on as SDLP, PC, SNP, LAB will vote down a Tory Queens Speech.
He then becomes minority PM or forms a minority coalition with the Lib Dems to get through English only matters.
It's unlikely that a Gov't will fall or take past August to form whatever it's shape so anyway this is my tip of the day.
On the Betfair Markets this is currently 9/9.2 (10.9% probability)
I'm reasonably neutral on this, having enough to cover various NOM bets within Con Green.
Con Largest Party is rated at 75%
On the Betfair markets Con Most seats is 1.63/1.65 which resembles a 60% chance.
So both of these are actually backable. Except listening to experienced gamblers both aren't great value at the moment.
Now we come to Ed PM - rated at 42% - William Hills has a bet at the moment Ed Miliband to be PM on August 1st.
So the 6-4 on this is value if you believe the Correct Con Seats should be 1.33 and Con Maj should be 5.0.
Also given recent polling 47 seats for the SNP looks like a roughly even money bet - which reinforces Fisher's reasoning...
The expected performance of the SNP making it tricky for Labour to actually get most seats. But they don't need to for Ed to become PM... If Con + Lib Dem + DUP < 323 he is PM pretty much nailed on as SDLP, PC, SNP, LAB will vote down a Tory Queens Speech.
He then becomes minority PM or forms a minority coalition with the Lib Dems to get through English only matters.
It's unlikely that a Gov't will fall or take past August to form whatever it's shape so anyway this is my tip of the day.
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