So it looks like my Osborne prediction went up the swanney, though Brexit was kind bettingwise to me (God knows what the country does though)
Anyway
A letter to ABC Aus:
Dear Sir/Madam,
I do not understand how the seat of Flynn is being projected for Labour (yet). Taking data from 2013, the 2 party result was Dowd 48352 vs Trevor 37178 = 85530 2 party votes
Now according to the data there were 10492 postal ballots in 2013 - stripping these out yields a result of: 41113 vs 33926 = 75039
54.78% vs 45.22%. According to @_ctnews the postals split 69% to O'Dowd. Which means he overperformed "on the day" by 14.22%
Taking this year's results he has 48.5 (On the day) +14.22 = 62.72% (Expected overperform) for the postal 9518 votes 62.72% = 5969 + 3548 (Beers)
Which yields a net gain of 2421 votes
Which means O'Dowd wins by ~ 363 votes
Also the electorate seems to have shrunk, and taking into account expected informal ballots I actually think O'Dowd will win by more.
Anyway I'd predict all the "in doubt" seats will go Lib coalition (13), with the possible exception of "Grey" to yield a result of
Labor 66
Coalition 78
Xenophon Team 2
Greens 1
Others 3
Lindsay, Longmann not 100% certain yet either - though I haven't done the maths on these.
Thanks,
James
Can honestly see a repeat in miniature of the Austrian postal 'catch up' here.