Australia; Chaos with the Cons and Brexit...

So it looks like my Osborne prediction went up the swanney, though Brexit was kind bettingwise to me (God knows what the country does though)

Anyway

A letter to ABC Aus:

Dear Sir/Madam,

I do not understand how the seat of Flynn is being projected for Labour (yet). Taking data from 2013, the 2 party result was Dowd 48352 vs Trevor 37178 = 85530 2 party votes

Now according to the data there were 10492 postal ballots in 2013 - stripping these out yields a result of: 41113 vs 33926 = 75039

54.78% vs 45.22%. According to @_ctnews the postals split 69% to O'Dowd. Which means he overperformed "on the day" by 14.22%

Taking this year's results he has 48.5 (On the day) +14.22 = 62.72% (Expected overperform) for the postal 9518 votes 62.72% = 5969 + 3548 (Beers)

Which yields a net gain of 2421 votes

Which means O'Dowd wins by ~ 363 votes

Also the electorate seems to have shrunk, and taking into account expected informal ballots I actually think O'Dowd will win by more.

Anyway I'd predict all the "in doubt" seats will go Lib coalition (13), with the possible exception of "Grey" to yield a result of

Labor 66
Coalition 78
Xenophon Team 2
Greens 1
Others 3

Lindsay, Longmann not 100% certain yet either - though I haven't done the maths on these.

Thanks,

James

Can honestly see a repeat in miniature of the Austrian postal 'catch up' here.

US Race:
No price more visibly demonstrates the utter lunacy of the Betfair markets than Bloomberg being rated as a ~ 0.5% chance for the GOP nominee.

My cat has more chance of being president than this happening. Namely Bloomberg ain't entering the GOP convention. He's very unlikely to run, but certainly not as GOP nominee.

The market has been mad, completely mad.

One word - There is no point in putting Hillary +ve at the moment, absolubtely none. But don't make her too big -ve right now as she has 3% of Sanders price to absorb.

So POTUS

++ Trump
++ Cruz
+ Biden
+ Kasich
0 Rubio
0 Clinton
-- Sanders

If you are starting De Novo right now, laying Sanders and backing Trump and Cruz might be the best way to go.