The model from Electionsetc currently gives Conservatives a 20% probability of forming the next Gov't.
On the Betfair Markets this is currently 9/9.2 (10.9% probability)
I'm reasonably neutral on this, having enough to cover various NOM bets within Con Green.
Con Largest Party is rated at 75%
On the Betfair markets Con Most seats is 1.63/1.65 which resembles a 60% chance.
So both of these are actually backable. Except listening to experienced gamblers both aren't great value at the moment.
Now we come to Ed PM - rated at 42% - William Hills has a bet at the moment Ed Miliband to be PM on August 1st.
So the 6-4 on this is value if you believe the Correct Con Seats should be 1.33 and Con Maj should be 5.0.
Also given recent polling 47 seats for the SNP looks like a roughly even money bet - which reinforces Fisher's reasoning...
The expected performance of the SNP making it tricky for Labour to actually get most seats. But they don't need to for Ed to become PM... If Con + Lib Dem + DUP < 323 he is PM pretty much nailed on as SDLP, PC, SNP, LAB will vote down a Tory Queens Speech.
He then becomes minority PM or forms a minority coalition with the Lib Dems to get through English only matters.
It's unlikely that a Gov't will fall or take past August to form whatever it's shape so anyway this is my tip of the day.
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