Will naming the Lib Dems help them out ?

So - is this http://may2015.com/featured/introducing-the-new-statesman-political-index-lib-dems-to-win-at-least-30-seats/ comfort polling or are the Lib Dems going to outperform all expectations in May ?

Up against the catastrophic ratings for the Lib Dems in the national polls are the seemingly almost invincible "local" candidates - but are they... probably not.

I'm taking a mixed view on this - and also noting the constituencies MISSED in the report, and there are two big ones from a betting PoV

Wells & Somerton and Frome.

Wells could just be an omission, but given the selection problems in Somerton & Frome surely this confirms by omission that the Lib Dems are dead here.

Anyway it was slightly concerning to see Solihull in that list (I can well believe given what I've heard anecdotally that mentioning her name gives the yellows a boost...) Do I think she can hang on... No. The Green party standing there lessens her chances too imo. Nevertheless given my slightly high exposure there I've decided to take some stake back by rebacking the Lib Dems at 10-3.

Somerton and Frome has no such incumbent MP advantage and despite the slightly higher majority enjoyed there looks more dead than Solihull to me, so I've topped up slightly on the CONs at 4-11.


Note I believe they'll both fall, but its a question of odds and so I've acted accordingly.