US Race:
No price more visibly demonstrates the utter lunacy of the Betfair markets than Bloomberg being rated as a ~ 0.5% chance for the GOP nominee.
My cat has more chance of being president than this happening. Namely Bloomberg ain't entering the GOP convention. He's very unlikely to run, but certainly not as GOP nominee.
The market has been mad, completely mad.
One word - There is no point in putting Hillary +ve at the moment, absolubtely none. But don't make her too big -ve right now as she has 3% of Sanders price to absorb.
So POTUS
++ Trump
++ Cruz
+ Biden
+ Kasich
0 Rubio
0 Clinton
-- Sanders
If you are starting De Novo right now, laying Sanders and backing Trump and Cruz might be the best way to go.
Saturday, 5 March 2016
Wednesday, 28 October 2015
October update.
An intermittent update.
Corbyn is now the Labour leader, and despite chucking money away by laying him at over 100-1 I managed to buy a couple of pounds at around 500. That represents my total profit on the event and well despite thinking I could have earnt more a grand in hand is worth a thousand pounds.
So thank you very much Jeremy !
He's also worth backing to keep his job in my view (For a while anyway...) betting on the obvious is normally a good way to make money in politics, Victor was 4-6 for him still to be in in 2017 which looks fair enough. Labour are also not doing so well in the polls but they're not in the catastrophic twenties, and the only Labourite who has a pair and would perhaps be willing to launch a coup is Watto who has problems of his own. Take the Victor bet if its still up at anything over 1-2.
The by-election in Oldham West and Royton is a penalty kick for Labour, and Skybet's 2-9 is a very generous price if still available. This is a sub 1-10 bet in reality.
On the London Mayoralty, 5-6;6-5 is probably correct, and I'm currently long Zac. We shall see though closer to the time. If Khan goes above Evens he is a buy but he will probably remain around 8-11.
Now onto Con next leader. I think though there are many runners and riders, one stands out in particular. George Osborne looks like he will run in my book and is a back at the current price of 2-1.
In the States, surely Hilary is unstoppable for the Dems, thankyou Paddy for the 5-6 on Iowa which she must be hot favourite for. I'm positive Clinton and roughly neutral on Sanders. Surely Lessig is in reality a true 1000-1 or longer shot, and there are no other runners.
It'll be Clinton....
The republican race meanwhile is the greatest circus in town with all the fruit loops (Trump; Carson; Cruz) crowding out the more moderate and sensible choices (Bush; Rubio). I'd say lay them all, but one MUST win ! Hopefully Carson will come into single figures soon on the betfair exchange so we can start laying him. Small stakes only on this one.
Corbyn is now the Labour leader, and despite chucking money away by laying him at over 100-1 I managed to buy a couple of pounds at around 500. That represents my total profit on the event and well despite thinking I could have earnt more a grand in hand is worth a thousand pounds.
So thank you very much Jeremy !
He's also worth backing to keep his job in my view (For a while anyway...) betting on the obvious is normally a good way to make money in politics, Victor was 4-6 for him still to be in in 2017 which looks fair enough. Labour are also not doing so well in the polls but they're not in the catastrophic twenties, and the only Labourite who has a pair and would perhaps be willing to launch a coup is Watto who has problems of his own. Take the Victor bet if its still up at anything over 1-2.
The by-election in Oldham West and Royton is a penalty kick for Labour, and Skybet's 2-9 is a very generous price if still available. This is a sub 1-10 bet in reality.
On the London Mayoralty, 5-6;6-5 is probably correct, and I'm currently long Zac. We shall see though closer to the time. If Khan goes above Evens he is a buy but he will probably remain around 8-11.
Now onto Con next leader. I think though there are many runners and riders, one stands out in particular. George Osborne looks like he will run in my book and is a back at the current price of 2-1.
In the States, surely Hilary is unstoppable for the Dems, thankyou Paddy for the 5-6 on Iowa which she must be hot favourite for. I'm positive Clinton and roughly neutral on Sanders. Surely Lessig is in reality a true 1000-1 or longer shot, and there are no other runners.
It'll be Clinton....
The republican race meanwhile is the greatest circus in town with all the fruit loops (Trump; Carson; Cruz) crowding out the more moderate and sensible choices (Bush; Rubio). I'd say lay them all, but one MUST win ! Hopefully Carson will come into single figures soon on the betfair exchange so we can start laying him. Small stakes only on this one.
Saturday, 9 May 2015
Friday, 1 May 2015
Calling it for Ed - Back Con Minority
Right - Time to put my neck on the block.
I'm calling it for Ed:
Here is why:
I fully expect the Tories to win the national vote share. The national polls point to Ed (In aggregate) being ahead on seats or it being too close to call. The likely distribution from the models (UKElect, FIsher, Hanretty) points to a Tory lead on votes and seats. BUT Here is the thing... Con + LD + DUP must equal 323. In order for Ed to NOT become PM he musty abstain the Conservative Queen speech. SNP, PC, SDLP, Green voting it down is even more sure than the Labour party. No doubt if it really is Labour 260, Tories 285 he will give it serious consideration. But then he will put forward a Labour Queen speech and DARE the SNP to vote it down. There will be some Labour rebels who will be expelled, Danczuk, Mann, perhaps one or two others.
The SNP will vote it through.. And thus as Rod Crosby has pointed towards in his constitutional musings Ed is PM. I expect him to remain in post till Holyrood 2016. Past that the SNP may well pull the plug.
The SNP will vote it through.. And thus as Rod Crosby has pointed towards in his constitutional musings Ed is PM. I expect him to remain in post till Holyrood 2016. Past that the SNP may well pull the plug.
However there is enough uncertainty in the whole situation to make CONSERVATIVE MINORITY the best value bet right now at 5.9 on Betfair.
How can I predict Ed, yet recommend Con minority as a bet ?
BET WHEN THE PRICE IS WRONG NOT WITH WHAT YOU THINK WILL HAPPEN.
So in short:
Prediction: Ed Miliband PM.
Bet recommendation: Conservative Minority.
Update: Lab minority more likely with Burnham's comments on R5L this morning.
Update: Lab minority more likely with Burnham's comments on R5L this morning.
Sunday, 26 April 2015
(Guided) finger in the air stuff here
Unexpected Holds & Gains for each party:
Con HOLD: Brighton Kemptown
Con Gain: Bath
Labour hold: Dumfries & Galloway
Lab Gain: Ilford North
Lib Dem Hold: Berwickshire Roxburgh Selkirk
Lib Dem Gain: Watford
SNP Hold:All 1-100 shots...
SNP Gain: DCT
UKIP Hold: Rochester
UKIP Gain: Great Grimsby.
Not betting recommendations by the way !
Unexpected Holds & Gains for each party:
Con HOLD: Brighton Kemptown
Con Gain: Bath
Labour hold: Dumfries & Galloway
Lab Gain: Ilford North
Lib Dem Hold: Berwickshire Roxburgh Selkirk
Lib Dem Gain: Watford
SNP Hold:All 1-100 shots...
SNP Gain: DCT
UKIP Hold: Rochester
UKIP Gain: Great Grimsby.
Not betting recommendations by the way !
Tuesday, 21 April 2015
Can the Gov't survive - a seat by seat analysis:
Seeing as the rest of parliament is basically to the left of Labour with the exception of the DUP - Well Con + DUP + LD + UKIP needs to = 323 for Dave to hang onto power.
Even at 323 it is highly dubious that the LDs don't switch sides, but we can regard it as an absolute minima.
Con/LD; SNP/Lab not important for this analysis:
LD losses to Labour according to Election forecast.
Bradford East
Brent Central
Manchester, Withington
Norwich South
Redcar
Burnley
Cardiff Central
Hornsey and Wood Green
Leeds North West
Bristol West
(10 losses to Lab)
Orkney is the 1 LD Hold against SNP (9 losses) - BRS switches LD to CON on the model.
Con losses to Lab.
6 London (Hendon, Brentford Isleworth, Enfield North, Ealing Central Acton, Croydon Central)
8 NW (Lancaster, Fleetwood, Chester, Bury North, Wirral West, Morecambe, Warrington South)
3 East (Waveney, Bedford, Ipswich)
2 Yorkshire Humber (Dewsbury, Keighley)
3 West Mids (Wolves SW, North Warks, Nuneaton)
2 SW (Plymouth, Stroud)
2 SE (Hastings, Hove)
6 East Mids (Erewash, Amber Valley, Sherwood, Lincoln, Amber Valley, Broxtowe)
The current potential centre-right coalition/confidence & supply arrangement is as follows Lib Dem total is 56, Conservatives 302, UKIP 2, DUP 8.
So 368 'forces of the centre/centre-right'
Subbing the Lab losses yields 358
The 9 SNP losses gives 349.
And then the 32 Conservatives gives 313..
To begin to have a prayer of staying as PM, 10 Holds are needed from this lot, and also crucially no losses 'off the list'.
Scotland looks to be a fair reflection, as even though some argue East Dunbartonshire might stay Lib Dem (Or even Thurso), DCT and BRS could both well go to the SNP... particularly BRS. Dumfries & Galloway could even be a CON gain. Though this is unlikely. Nine losses to the SNP looks about right to me.
With the Lab gains from LD
Brent Central
Manchester, Withington
Norwich South
Redcar
Burnley
Cardiff Central
Bristol West
Are all surely dead. If Bristol West doesn't go red, it is going Green and that is of no use to Dave whatsoever.
Hornsey and Wood Green looks fairly dead too, and there are some arguments that Ward PV may hold Bradford East.
Leeds North West is odds against, but then again Birmingham Yardley and Sheffield Hallam could be brought into play.
Eight is a working minimum here.
Which gives 351 seats.
So 28 is the absolute and complete minimum no of seats Dave needs to stop shipping...
The Labour seat total is almost immaterial, it is all about the above group hitting 323
Even then it may not be enough.
Seeing as the rest of parliament is basically to the left of Labour with the exception of the DUP - Well Con + DUP + LD + UKIP needs to = 323 for Dave to hang onto power.
Even at 323 it is highly dubious that the LDs don't switch sides, but we can regard it as an absolute minima.
Con/LD; SNP/Lab not important for this analysis:
LD losses to Labour according to Election forecast.
Bradford East
Brent Central
Manchester, Withington
Norwich South
Redcar
Burnley
Cardiff Central
Hornsey and Wood Green
Leeds North West
Bristol West
(10 losses to Lab)
Orkney is the 1 LD Hold against SNP (9 losses) - BRS switches LD to CON on the model.
Con losses to Lab.
6 London (Hendon, Brentford Isleworth, Enfield North, Ealing Central Acton, Croydon Central)
8 NW (Lancaster, Fleetwood, Chester, Bury North, Wirral West, Morecambe, Warrington South)
3 East (Waveney, Bedford, Ipswich)
2 Yorkshire Humber (Dewsbury, Keighley)
3 West Mids (Wolves SW, North Warks, Nuneaton)
2 SW (Plymouth, Stroud)
2 SE (Hastings, Hove)
6 East Mids (Erewash, Amber Valley, Sherwood, Lincoln, Amber Valley, Broxtowe)
The current potential centre-right coalition/confidence & supply arrangement is as follows Lib Dem total is 56, Conservatives 302, UKIP 2, DUP 8.
So 368 'forces of the centre/centre-right'
Subbing the Lab losses yields 358
The 9 SNP losses gives 349.
And then the 32 Conservatives gives 313..
To begin to have a prayer of staying as PM, 10 Holds are needed from this lot, and also crucially no losses 'off the list'.
Scotland looks to be a fair reflection, as even though some argue East Dunbartonshire might stay Lib Dem (Or even Thurso), DCT and BRS could both well go to the SNP... particularly BRS. Dumfries & Galloway could even be a CON gain. Though this is unlikely. Nine losses to the SNP looks about right to me.
With the Lab gains from LD
Brent Central
Manchester, Withington
Norwich South
Redcar
Burnley
Cardiff Central
Bristol West
Are all surely dead. If Bristol West doesn't go red, it is going Green and that is of no use to Dave whatsoever.
Hornsey and Wood Green looks fairly dead too, and there are some arguments that Ward PV may hold Bradford East.
Leeds North West is odds against, but then again Birmingham Yardley and Sheffield Hallam could be brought into play.
Eight is a working minimum here.
Which gives 351 seats.
So 28 is the absolute and complete minimum no of seats Dave needs to stop shipping...
The Labour seat total is almost immaterial, it is all about the above group hitting 323
Even then it may not be enough.
Thursday, 9 April 2015
The value of Edward Samuel Miliband
The model from Electionsetc currently gives Conservatives a 20% probability of forming the next Gov't.
On the Betfair Markets this is currently 9/9.2 (10.9% probability)
I'm reasonably neutral on this, having enough to cover various NOM bets within Con Green.
Con Largest Party is rated at 75%
On the Betfair markets Con Most seats is 1.63/1.65 which resembles a 60% chance.
So both of these are actually backable. Except listening to experienced gamblers both aren't great value at the moment.
Now we come to Ed PM - rated at 42% - William Hills has a bet at the moment Ed Miliband to be PM on August 1st.
So the 6-4 on this is value if you believe the Correct Con Seats should be 1.33 and Con Maj should be 5.0.
Also given recent polling 47 seats for the SNP looks like a roughly even money bet - which reinforces Fisher's reasoning...
The expected performance of the SNP making it tricky for Labour to actually get most seats. But they don't need to for Ed to become PM... If Con + Lib Dem + DUP < 323 he is PM pretty much nailed on as SDLP, PC, SNP, LAB will vote down a Tory Queens Speech.
He then becomes minority PM or forms a minority coalition with the Lib Dems to get through English only matters.
It's unlikely that a Gov't will fall or take past August to form whatever it's shape so anyway this is my tip of the day.
On the Betfair Markets this is currently 9/9.2 (10.9% probability)
I'm reasonably neutral on this, having enough to cover various NOM bets within Con Green.
Con Largest Party is rated at 75%
On the Betfair markets Con Most seats is 1.63/1.65 which resembles a 60% chance.
So both of these are actually backable. Except listening to experienced gamblers both aren't great value at the moment.
Now we come to Ed PM - rated at 42% - William Hills has a bet at the moment Ed Miliband to be PM on August 1st.
So the 6-4 on this is value if you believe the Correct Con Seats should be 1.33 and Con Maj should be 5.0.
Also given recent polling 47 seats for the SNP looks like a roughly even money bet - which reinforces Fisher's reasoning...
The expected performance of the SNP making it tricky for Labour to actually get most seats. But they don't need to for Ed to become PM... If Con + Lib Dem + DUP < 323 he is PM pretty much nailed on as SDLP, PC, SNP, LAB will vote down a Tory Queens Speech.
He then becomes minority PM or forms a minority coalition with the Lib Dems to get through English only matters.
It's unlikely that a Gov't will fall or take past August to form whatever it's shape so anyway this is my tip of the day.
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